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Growth for nonwoven roll goods has been steady over the past decade; China becomes leading global exporter.
May 7, 2012
By: Jacques Prigneaux
Market Analysis & Economic Affairs Director
The 2008 financial crisis, which translated into a global economic crisis, impacted the trade of goods and services in a harsh manner. This overall trade collapse observed in 2008-2009 has led to a renewed interest in monitoring the international merchandise trade flows in the new globalized economy. Merchandise trade statistics record trade flows on a “gross basis” whereas the gross domestic product (GDP) aggregate measures the “value added” created during the production of goods and services. Thus, trade in intermediate products is only taken into account in GDP through the additional value produced at each step of the production process. In merchandise trade statistics, in contrast, intermediate goods are counted at full value each time they cross the border. Through the phenomenon of international supply chains, “multiple gross counting” is amplified. Indeed, the increase in trade elasticity observed after the late 1980s is probably due to a change in business model, where specific segments of manufacturing production have been progressively outsourced to other countries. Trade statistics of economies are available and used in different statistical frameworks: national accounts, balance of payments, customs (national or international concepts), input-output tables, etc. The objective of official merchandise trade statistics is to describe adequately economic phenomena and provide decision makers with relevant indicators. Yet, the structural changes linked to globalization are challenging the relevance of these traditional trade statistics and these registered flows may also misrepresent current economic phenomena. Indeed, international supply chains that characterize global manufacturing, particularly since the 1990s, are also affecting trade, as firms in industrialized countries look beyond the boundaries of the developed world to lower costs and access new talents. In addition, users of trade statistics often face issues of consistency and interpretation, especially when numbers are taken from different statistical frameworks. Complex Supply Chains The fragmentation of international production—and supply chains—and vertical integration also increase the importance of intra-firm trade of multinationals. The notion of a firm with a unique national identity is fading quickly. The strict application of the change of ownership principle for goods impacts the recording of such international transactions, perhaps necessitating supplementary data collections. However, the complexity of corporate ownerships may limit such data collections. The valuation of intra-firm transactions is often mentioned as a particular concern when measuring international trade flows as they may not reflect full market prices to take advantage of fiscal or tax regulations. The concept of transfer pricing refers to both the issue and also the solution of a valuation problem in international transactions. On the one hand, transfer pricing means the allocation of profits for tax and other purposes between affiliates of a multinational enterprise, using artificial prices (over or under invoicing). On the other hand, transfer pricing refers to the valuation methods used by tax authorities with the aim of avoiding taxes. Goods shipped for processing, increased intra-firm trade of multinationals or transfer pricing are interrelated phenomena that are growing with an increasing fragmentation of production chains. This trend adds to the difficulty in determining a product’s origin and in answering the question: “Who produces for whom in the world economy?” Vertical fragmentation of production is a phenomenon of globalization that leads to an increase of trade flows in intermediate products in the manufacturing sector. Industrial supply chains may blur the country of origin concept as part of the commercial value of an imported good may not originate in the “country of origin” mentioned in the custom documents. Consequently, what part of value is a country adding to an exported product and which part is coming from an earlier-imported product? Users turn to international trade statistics for replying to such questions and try to break down trade flows for analyzing the effects of goods for processing, intra-firm trade and trade in value-added. With multinational corporations fragmenting international production, sales of goods between firms or multinational companies have increased. This trend is reflected in an increase of trade in intermediate goods. Outsourcing is often used to describe this phenomenon, shifting production either to another domestic company or a foreign firm abroad (offshore-outsourcing). When the company abroad is an affiliate, involving foreign direct investment to establish it, trade between the two entities is considered as intra-firm, but does not appear as such in official trade statistics. Nonwovens Expanding Nonwovens do not escape from this phenomenon. Additionally, the flows of nonwovens coming in and out of a region are not only roll goods moving across the borders. Final and other intermediate products made, partially or entirely, of nonwovens should also be taken into account, but this can only be achieved within the limits of the current official trade nomenclature. The uses of nonwovens are so diversified and most of the time not clearly identified in the nomenclature that it is not possible to trace progress through the different supply chains. Despite the slowdown recorded in 2009, trade in nonwoven roll goods has been growing steadily over the past decade. Experts associate this positive trend with a number of developments. For instance, growth and increased sophistication of production has given birth to strategies involving fragmentation and reorganization of firms’ activities, both in terms of ownership boundaries and also location for production. Despite the bulky characteristic of many nonwovens, a continuous expansion of trade of roll goods has been recorded. This is particularly true for the European Union where more than 18% of the local production in tonnage is now sold to non-EU countries, while 12% of the apparent mill consumption within the EU is coming from outside the Union. Therefore, despite the complexity of the trade links between countries on a worldwide basis, it is crucial to monitor these flows. Analysis of official trade statistics for nonwovens remains unclear because the information collected by the customs does not fit modern characteristics of our industry. The available figures are only in tons, and in value for the nonwovens classified in Chapter 5603 of the Harmonized System (HS) nomenclature. Subcategories of this HS 5603 propose a further classification of materials by production process (polymer or fiber-based) and by basic range of weight (less than 25 gsm, 25-70 gsm, 70-150 gsm and more than 150 gsm). This lack of official data is an obvious constraint in the subsequent analysis as the trends linked to the substitution by lower grammage products, for instance, are difficult to identify. Moreover, the different raw materials (polymer or fibers) used in production are not taken into account. It is also important to remember that some nonwovens, mainly wetlaid and airlaid, made of more than 50% wood pulp or non-textile fibers are classified in the official nomenclature according to their raw materials and not in the nonwovens HS 5603 headings analyzed here. As these types of roll goods are grouped together with other kinds of products, and not differentiated in the official nomenclature, the only relevant and accurate information on these sorts of products, as far as Europe and the Middle East are concerned, can be found in the EDANA Annual Statistics report. (EDANA member companies have access to this report, free of charge, every year.) In order to help its member companies, EDANA has developed a comprehensive database for nonwovens—polymer and fiber-based products, for import and exports, in tons and in Euros, for 68 declaring countries—including the nonwoven trade flows of the most important nonwovens suppliers since 1999. The most relevant trends are disclosed in this article, but additional information is available upon request. The purpose of this article is to underline the main trade flows of nonwovens, and to show their development over the last 10 years. Local production showed impressive growth rates during this period in different regions and, despite the characteristics of nonwovens, exchanges between countries grew as well. The idea here is not to explain why such growth in trade has happened—as cause can be very different from year to year (such as intra-firm strategy), from product to product (limited analysis of the trend in gsm due to the HS nomenclature) and from raw materials to raw materials (nonwovens are not classified by their components)—but to show the current status of the worldwide trade of nonwoven roll goods. Big Picture, Big Changes In 10 years, the big picture of the worldwide trade of nonwovens has been modified quite significantly. The evolution of the export of nonwovens in both volume and value has been impressive. The European Union has never exported more than it did in 2011; compared to its 2001 level, the tonnage exported has nearly doubled, while increasing by 85% in value. During the same period, Chinese exports have skyrocketed (+947% in volume and +766% in value). (See Figure 1.)
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